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Zoo Kericho vs APS Bomet — Super League 2018

Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
FT
0 – 2
APS Bomet
APS Bomet
6/18/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31Kericho Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zoo Kericho36%
×Draw31%
APS Bomet33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zoo Kericho
1.04
APS Bomet
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 39 away

creates per match

Zoo Kericho
1.31
APS Bomet
0.92

allows per match

Zoo Kericho
1.06
APS Bomet
0.77

finishing

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par
APS Bomet+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zoo Kericho ↓

APS Bomet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zoo Kericho or draw
67%
Zoo Kericho or APS Bomet
69%
Draw or APS Bomet
64%

Winning margin

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
14%
APS Bomet wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
65%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
28%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
9%
APS Bomet 1+ goals
63%
APS Bomet 2+ goals
26%
APS Bomet 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
52%
APS Bomet (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zoo Kericho at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

APS Bomet away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zoo Kericho attack 1.31 + APS Bomet defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.04

APS Bomet attack 0.92 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Zoo Kericho scores more
36%
level
31%
APS Bomet scores more
33%

Zoo Kericho at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zoo Kericho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zoo Kericho vs APS Bomet

APS Bomet beat Zoo Kericho 2-0 in Super League on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Kericho Green Stadium in Kericho.