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APS Bomet vs Zoo Kericho — Super League 2018

APS Bomet
APS Bomet
FT
2 – 2
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
2/26/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Bomet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

APS Bomet47%
×Draw25%
Zoo Kericho27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APS Bomet
1.55
Zoo Kericho
1.11

APS Bomet creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 14 away

creates per match

APS Bomet
1.47
Zoo Kericho
1.64

allows per match

APS Bomet
0.58
Zoo Kericho
1.64

finishing

APS Bomet+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APS Bomet ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

APS Bomet or draw
73%
APS Bomet or Zoo Kericho
75%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
53%

Winning margin

APS Bomet wins by 2+
24%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

APS Bomet 1+ goals
79%
APS Bomet 2+ goals
46%
APS Bomet 3+ goals
20%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
67%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
30%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

APS Bomet (draw refunded)
64%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APS Bomet at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.58 · 38 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APS Bomet attack 1.47 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Zoo Kericho attack 1.64 + APS Bomet defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

APS Bomet scores more
47%
level
25%
Zoo Kericho scores more
27%

APS Bomet at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "APS Bomet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: APS Bomet vs Zoo Kericho

APS Bomet and Zoo Kericho drew 2-2 in Super League on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Bomet Stadium in Bomet.