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ZOB Ahan vs Mes Rafsanjan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
5/8/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 29Foolad Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

ZOB Ahan36%
×Draw31%
Mes Rafsanjan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ZOB Ahan
1.01
Mes Rafsanjan
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 86 away

creates per match

ZOB Ahan
0.89
Mes Rafsanjan
0.93

allows per match

ZOB Ahan
0.94
Mes Rafsanjan
1.13

finishing

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par
Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZOB Ahan ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ZOB Ahan or draw
68%
ZOB Ahan or Mes Rafsanjan
69%
Draw or Mes Rafsanjan
64%

Winning margin

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
14%
Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
64%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
27%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
8%
Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
61%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
24%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
53%
Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZOB Ahan at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 115 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.13 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZOB Ahan attack 0.89 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.93 + ZOB Ahan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

ZOB Ahan scores more
36%
level
31%
Mes Rafsanjan scores more
32%

ZOB Ahan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "ZOB Ahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: ZOB Ahan 2–1 Mes Rafsanjan

ZOB Ahan beat Mes Rafsanjan 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 8, 2025.

The match was played at Foolad Sport Complex in Ahwaz.