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Mes Rafsanjan vs ZOB Ahan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
3/17/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 21Simorgh Martyrs Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan36%
×Draw32%
ZOB Ahan33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
0.99
ZOB Ahan
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 116 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.91
ZOB Ahan
0.91

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.94
ZOB Ahan
1.07

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

ZOB Ahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
67%
Mes Rafsanjan or ZOB Ahan
68%
Draw or ZOB Ahan
64%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
13%
ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
63%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
26%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
8%
ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
61%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
24%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
52%
ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + ZOB Ahan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.99

ZOB Ahan attack 0.91 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
36%
level
32%
ZOB Ahan scores more
33%

Mes Rafsanjan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs ZOB Ahan

Mes Rafsanjan and ZOB Ahan drew 2-2 in Persian Gulf Pro League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Simorgh Martyrs Stadium in Ziar Kola.