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ZOB Ahan vs Foolad FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Foolad FC
Foolad FC
10/18/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 7Foolad Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

ZOB Ahan36%
×Draw32%
Foolad FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ZOB Ahan
0.98
Foolad FC
0.89

ZOB Ahan creates 10% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 116 away

creates per match

ZOB Ahan
0.89
Foolad FC
0.84

allows per match

ZOB Ahan
0.94
Foolad FC
1.07

finishing

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par
Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZOB Ahan ↓

Foolad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

ZOB Ahan or draw
68%
ZOB Ahan or Foolad FC
68%
Draw or Foolad FC
64%

Winning margin

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
14%
Foolad FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
62%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
26%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
8%
Foolad FC 1+ goals
59%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
22%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
54%
Foolad FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZOB Ahan at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 115 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZOB Ahan attack 0.89 + Foolad FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Foolad FC attack 0.84 + ZOB Ahan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

ZOB Ahan scores more
36%
level
32%
Foolad FC scores more
32%

ZOB Ahan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "ZOB Ahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ZOB Ahan vs Foolad FC

ZOB Ahan and Foolad FC drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Foolad Shahr Stadium in Isfahan.