Foolad FC 1–0 ZOB Ahan: Result & Stats

Foolad FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ZOB Ahan

9/28/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 6Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Foolad FC40%

×Draw32%

ZOB Ahan28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Foolad FCExpected goals in this matchZOB Ahan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.83

Foolad FC

1.05

ZOB Ahan

0.83

Foolad FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 116 away

1.03

creates per match

0.91

0.75

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Foolad FC

1.03

ZOB Ahan

0.91

allows per match

Foolad FC

0.75

ZOB Ahan

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

ZOB Ahan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw

72%

Foolad FC or ZOB Ahan

68%

Draw or ZOB Ahan

60%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+

16%

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals

65%

Foolad FC 2+ goals

28%

Foolad FC 3+ goals

9%

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals

56%

ZOB Ahan 2+ goals

20%

ZOB Ahan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)

59%

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.75 · 115 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.03 + ZOB Ahan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

ZOB Ahan attack 0.91 + Foolad FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Foolad FC scores more

40%

level

32%

ZOB Ahan scores more

28%

Foolad FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff