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ZOB Ahan vs Al-Wasl FC — AFC Champions League 2018

ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Al-Wasl FC
Al-Wasl FC
4/23/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Foolad Shahr Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

ZOB Ahan63%
×Draw22%
Al-Wasl FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ZOB Ahan
1.81
Al-Wasl FC
0.74

ZOB Ahan creates 145% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

ZOB Ahan
1.44
Al-Wasl FC
0.82

allows per match

ZOB Ahan
0.67
Al-Wasl FC
2.18

finishing

ZOB Ahan+0.00on par
Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ZOB Ahan ↓

Al-Wasl FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

ZOB Ahan or draw
85%
ZOB Ahan or Al-Wasl FC
78%
Draw or Al-Wasl FC
37%

Winning margin

ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
37%
Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
84%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
54%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
27%
Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals
52%
Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals
17%
Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
81%
Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ZOB Ahan at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Al-Wasl FC away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ZOB Ahan attack 1.44 + Al-Wasl FC defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.81

Al-Wasl FC attack 0.82 + ZOB Ahan defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

ZOB Ahan scores more
63%
level
22%
Al-Wasl FC scores more
15%

ZOB Ahan at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "ZOB Ahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: ZOB Ahan 2–0 Al-Wasl FC

ZOB Ahan beat Al-Wasl FC 2-0 in AFC Champions League on April 23, 2019.

The match was played at Foolad Shahr Stadium in Isfahan.