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Al-Wasl FC vs ZOB Ahan — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Wasl FC
Al-Wasl FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
4/8/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Zabeel Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al-Wasl FC31%
×Draw23%
ZOB Ahan45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Wasl FC
1.42
ZOB Ahan
1.75

ZOB Ahan creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Al-Wasl FC
0.73
ZOB Ahan
1.67

allows per match

Al-Wasl FC
1.82
ZOB Ahan
2.11

finishing

Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par
ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Wasl FC ↓

ZOB Ahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Al-Wasl FC or draw
55%
Al-Wasl FC or ZOB Ahan
77%
Draw or ZOB Ahan
69%

Winning margin

Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+
14%
ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals
76%
Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals
41%
Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals
17%
ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
83%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
52%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)
41%
ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Wasl FC at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Wasl FC attack 0.73 + ZOB Ahan defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

ZOB Ahan attack 1.67 + Al-Wasl FC defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al-Wasl FC scores more
31%
level
23%
ZOB Ahan scores more
45%

ZOB Ahan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ZOB Ahan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Wasl FC vs ZOB Ahan

ZOB Ahan beat Al-Wasl FC 3-1 in AFC Champions League on April 8, 2019.

The match was played at Zabeel Stadion in Dubai.