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Znojmo vs Slovácko II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Znojmo
Znojmo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovácko II
Slovácko II
3/11/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 19Městský stadion Horním parku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Znojmo39%
×Draw24%
Slovácko II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znojmo
1.60
Slovácko II
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 82 away

creates per match

Znojmo
1.62
Slovácko II
1.41

allows per match

Znojmo
1.73
Slovácko II
1.59

finishing

Znojmo+0.00on par
Slovácko II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znojmo ↓

Slovácko II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Znojmo or draw
62%
Znojmo or Slovácko II
76%
Draw or Slovácko II
61%

Winning margin

Znojmo wins by 2+
19%
Slovácko II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Znojmo 1+ goals
80%
Znojmo 2+ goals
47%
Znojmo 3+ goals
22%
Slovácko II 1+ goals
79%
Slovácko II 2+ goals
46%
Slovácko II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Znojmo (draw refunded)
51%
Slovácko II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znojmo at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 66 matches

Slovácko II away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znojmo attack 1.62 + Slovácko II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Slovácko II attack 1.41 + Znojmo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Znojmo scores more
39%
level
24%
Slovácko II scores more
38%

Znojmo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Znojmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znojmo vs Slovácko II

Znojmo beat Slovácko II 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion Horním parku in Znojmo.