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Znojmo vs Hodonín — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Znojmo
Znojmo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Hodonín
Hodonín
3/4/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 18Městský stadion Horním parku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Znojmo36%
×Draw23%
Hodonín41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znojmo
1.60
Hodonín
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 51 away

creates per match

Znojmo
1.62
Hodonín
1.75

allows per match

Znojmo
1.73
Hodonín
1.57

finishing

Znojmo+0.00on par
Hodonín+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znojmo ↓

Hodonín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Znojmo or draw
59%
Znojmo or Hodonín
77%
Draw or Hodonín
64%

Winning margin

Znojmo wins by 2+
17%
Hodonín wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Znojmo 1+ goals
80%
Znojmo 2+ goals
47%
Znojmo 3+ goals
22%
Hodonín 1+ goals
82%
Hodonín 2+ goals
52%
Hodonín 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Znojmo (draw refunded)
46%
Hodonín (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znojmo at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 66 matches

Hodonín away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znojmo attack 1.62 + Hodonín defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hodonín attack 1.75 + Znojmo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Znojmo scores more
36%
level
23%
Hodonín scores more
41%

Hodonín at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hodonín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Znojmo 3–1 Hodonín

Znojmo beat Hodonín 3-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion Horním parku in Znojmo.