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Znojmo vs Dolní Benešov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Znojmo
Znojmo
CANC
15:00
Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
5/27/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 34Městský stadion Horním parku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Znojmo55%
×Draw21%
Dolní Benešov25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znojmo
2.17
Dolní Benešov
1.41

Znojmo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 26 away

creates per match

Znojmo
1.62
Dolní Benešov
1.08

allows per match

Znojmo
1.73
Dolní Benešov
2.73

finishing

Znojmo+0.00on par
Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znojmo ↓

Dolní Benešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Znojmo or draw
75%
Znojmo or Dolní Benešov
79%
Draw or Dolní Benešov
45%

Winning margin

Znojmo wins by 2+
33%
Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Znojmo 1+ goals
89%
Znojmo 2+ goals
64%
Znojmo 3+ goals
36%
Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
76%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
41%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Znojmo (draw refunded)
69%
Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znojmo at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 66 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znojmo attack 1.62 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.17

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Znojmo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Znojmo scores more
55%
level
21%
Dolní Benešov scores more
25%

Znojmo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Znojmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Znojmo vs Dolní Benešov — Match Preview

Znojmo face Dolní Benešov on May 27, 2020 in this 3. liga - MSFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Znojmo host Dolní Benešov at Městský stadion Horním parku.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.