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Dolní Benešov vs Znojmo — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
FT
2 – 2
Znojmo
Znojmo
9/25/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 9Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dolní Benešov35%
×Draw25%
Znojmo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolní Benešov
1.39
Znojmo
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 64 away

creates per match

Dolní Benešov
0.80
Znojmo
1.45

allows per match

Dolní Benešov
1.60
Znojmo
1.98

finishing

Dolní Benešov+0.00on par
Znojmo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolní Benešov ↓

Znojmo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dolní Benešov or draw
59%
Dolní Benešov or Znojmo
75%
Draw or Znojmo
65%

Winning margin

Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
16%
Znojmo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
75%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
40%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
16%
Znojmo 1+ goals
78%
Znojmo 2+ goals
45%
Znojmo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
46%
Znojmo (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolní Benešov at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Znojmo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.98 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolní Benešov attack 0.80 + Znojmo defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.39

Znojmo attack 1.45 + Dolní Benešov defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dolní Benešov scores more
35%
level
25%
Znojmo scores more
41%

Znojmo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Znojmo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dolní Benešov vs Znojmo

Dolní Benešov and Znojmo drew 2-2 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FC MSA Dolní Benešov in Dolní Benešov.