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Znicz Pruszków vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — I Liga 2018

Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
8/4/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 3Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Znicz Pruszków41%
×Draw26%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Pruszków
1.43
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.27

Znicz Pruszków creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 85 away

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.37
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.94

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.61
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.48

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw
67%
Znicz Pruszków or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
74%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
59%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
19%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
76%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
42%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
17%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
72%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
36%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
55%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.37 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more
41%
level
26%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
33%

Znicz Pruszków at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Znicz Pruszków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znicz Pruszków vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Znicz Pruszków beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1-0 in I Liga on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Znicza in Pruszków.