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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Znicz Pruszków — I Liga 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
2/18/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 20ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec38%
×Draw27%
Znicz Pruszków36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.29
Znicz Pruszków
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Znicz Pruszków
1.10

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.39
Znicz Pruszków
1.43

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Znicz Pruszków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
64%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Znicz Pruszków
73%
Draw or Znicz Pruszków
62%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
17%
Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
72%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
37%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
14%
Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
71%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
36%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
51%
Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.10 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
38%
level
27%
Znicz Pruszków scores more
36%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 0–1 Znicz Pruszków

Znicz Pruszków beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1-0 in I Liga on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.