Znicz Pruszków 2–1 Wisla Plock: Result & Stats

Znicz Pruszków

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Wisla Plock

1/18/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Znicz Pruszków34%

×Draw23%

Wisla Plock42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz PruszkówExpected goals in this matchWisla Plock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.72

Znicz Pruszków

1.53

Wisla Plock

1.72

Wisla Plock creates 12% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.90

creates per match

1.83

1.60

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.90

Wisla Plock

1.83

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.60

Wisla Plock

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Wisla Plock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw

58%

Znicz Pruszków or Wisla Plock

77%

Draw or Wisla Plock

66%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

16%

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

78%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

45%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

20%

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

82%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

51%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

45%

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.90 + Wisla Plock defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.53

Wisla Plock attack 1.83 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more

34%

level

23%

Wisla Plock scores more

42%

Wisla Plock at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff