Znicz Pruszków 2–1 Pogoń Siedlce: Result & Stats

Znicz Pruszków

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Pogoń Siedlce

D. Bak 38'

J. Jach 17'

J. Niezgoda 77'

1/24/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Znicz Pruszków48%

×Draw21%

Pogoń Siedlce31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz PruszkówExpected goals in this matchPogoń Siedlce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.68

Znicz Pruszków

2.13

Pogoń Siedlce

1.68

Znicz Pruszków creates 27% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

1.80

1.56

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.67

Pogoń Siedlce

1.80

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.56

Pogoń Siedlce

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw

69%

Znicz Pruszków or Pogoń Siedlce

79%

Draw or Pogoń Siedlce

52%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

28%

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

88%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

63%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

35%

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

81%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

50%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

61%

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.67 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.13

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.80 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more

48%

level

21%

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

31%

Znicz Pruszków at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Znicz Pruszków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Jach

38'

D. Bak

77'

J. Niezgoda

Znicz

Pogoń

Manager: Peter Struhar

Manager: Adam Nocon

Friendlies Clubs: Znicz Pruszków 2–1 Pogoń Siedlce

Znicz Pruszków beat Pogoń Siedlce 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2026.

Goals: J. Jach (17'), D. Bak (38'), J. Niezgoda (77').

Znicz Pruszków vs Pogoń Siedlce — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Znicz Pruszków 2–1 Pogoń Siedlce