Pogoń Siedlce vs Znicz Pruszków — I Liga 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Pogoń Siedlce42%
Znicz Pruszków31%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Pogoń Siedlce creates 20% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Pogoń Siedlce ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches
Znicz Pruszków away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.10 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.34
Znicz Pruszków attack 0.95 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.12
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Pogoń Siedlce at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Pogoń Siedlce substitutes
Znicz Pruszków substitutes
Wisla Krakow
Wieczysta Kraków
Slask Wroclaw
Chrobry Głogów
ŁKS Łódź
Ruch Chorzów
Polonia Warszawa
Miedz Legnica
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Odra Opole
Stal RzeszówPogoń Siedlce
Stal MielecZnicz Pruszków
Górnik Łęczna
Tychy 71If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Pogoń Siedlce host Znicz Pruszków on Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 11:00. The match is part of the I Liga 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Pogoń Siedlce vs Znicz Pruszków
Pogoń Siedlce beat Znicz Pruszków 1-0 in I Liga on March 15, 2026.
Goals: K. Podlinski (74').
The match was played at Stadion ROSRRiT in Siedlce.