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Znicz Pruszków vs Motor Lublin — I Liga 2018

Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
11/10/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 15Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Znicz Pruszków30%
×Draw26%
Motor Lublin44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Pruszków
1.16
Motor Lublin
1.45

Motor Lublin creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.37
Motor Lublin
1.28

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.61
Motor Lublin
0.94

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par
Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Motor Lublin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw
56%
Znicz Pruszków or Motor Lublin
74%
Draw or Motor Lublin
70%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
12%
Motor Lublin wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
69%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
32%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
11%
Motor Lublin 1+ goals
77%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
42%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
41%
Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.37 + Motor Lublin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Motor Lublin attack 1.28 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more
30%
level
26%
Motor Lublin scores more
44%

Motor Lublin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Znicz Pruszków 1–0 Motor Lublin

Znicz Pruszków beat Motor Lublin 1-0 in I Liga on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Znicza in Pruszków.