Motor Lublin 0–0 Znicz Pruszków: Result & Stats

Motor Lublin

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Znicz Pruszków

9/4/2022

II Liga - East · Round 9Arena Lublin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Motor Lublin48%

×Draw25%

Znicz Pruszków27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Motor LublinExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.16

Motor Lublin

1.64

Znicz Pruszków

1.16

Motor Lublin creates 41% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

1.83

creates per match

1.36

0.96

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Motor Lublin

1.83

Znicz Pruszków

1.36

allows per match

Motor Lublin

0.96

Znicz Pruszków

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Lublin ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Motor Lublin or draw

73%

Motor Lublin or Znicz Pruszków

75%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

52%

Winning margin

Motor Lublin wins by 2+

25%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Motor Lublin 1+ goals

81%

Motor Lublin 2+ goals

49%

Motor Lublin 3+ goals

23%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

69%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

32%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)

64%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Lublin attack 1.83 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.64

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.36 + Motor Lublin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Motor Lublin scores more

48%

level

25%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

27%

Motor Lublin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

J. Staszak← K. Rozmus

45'

P. Czarnowski

46'

L. Jagodziński← M. Kosior

52'

W. Nowak← P. Czarnowski

63'

M. Rybicki← P. Kusiński

64'

W. Reiman← M. Gąsior

69'

L. Jagodzinski

72'

D. Yukhymovych

80'

P. Skórecki← T. Proczek

83'

D. Sędzikowski← R. Król

89'

M. Możdżeń← S. Nagamatsu

90+5'

M. Mozdzen

Motor

Znicz

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Szpyrka

42'▲J. Staszak←▼K. Rozmus

46'▲L. Jagodziński←▼M. Kosior

63'▲M. Rybicki←▼P. Kusiński

64'▲W. Reiman←▼M. Gąsior

83'▲D. Sędzikowski←▼R. Król

Motor Lublin substitutes

StaszakJagodzińskiRybickiReimanSędzikowski

Manager: M. Misiura

52'▲W. Nowak←▼P. Czarnowski

80'▲P. Skórecki←▼T. Proczek

89'▲M. Możdżeń←▼S. Nagamatsu

Znicz Pruszków substitutes

NowakSkóreckiMożdżeń