Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Znicz Pruszków vs Legionovia Legionowo — II Liga - East 2019

Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
7/1/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Znicz Pruszków50%
×Draw24%
Legionovia Legionowo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Pruszków
1.71
Legionovia Legionowo
1.18

Znicz Pruszków creates 45% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.14
Legionovia Legionowo
1.06

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.29
Legionovia Legionowo
2.29

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw
74%
Znicz Pruszków or Legionovia Legionowo
76%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
50%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
27%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
82%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
51%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
24%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
69%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
33%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
65%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 69 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.14 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.06 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more
50%
level
24%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
26%

Znicz Pruszków at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Znicz Pruszków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znicz Pruszków vs Legionovia Legionowo

Znicz Pruszków beat Legionovia Legionowo 4-0 in II Liga - East on July 1, 2020.