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Legionovia Legionowo vs Znicz Pruszków — II Liga - East 2019

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
10/5/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 12Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo31%
×Draw26%
Znicz Pruszków43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.17
Znicz Pruszków
1.42

Znicz Pruszków creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
0.88
Znicz Pruszków
1.36

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.47
Znicz Pruszków
1.45

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Znicz Pruszków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
57%
Legionovia Legionowo or Znicz Pruszków
74%
Draw or Znicz Pruszków
69%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
13%
Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
69%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
33%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
11%
Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
76%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
41%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
42%
Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 0.88 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.36 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
31%
level
26%
Znicz Pruszków scores more
43%

Znicz Pruszków at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Znicz Pruszków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Legionovia Legionowo 0 – 0 Znicz Pruszków

Legionovia Legionowo and Znicz Pruszków drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.