Znicz Pruszków 0–2 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Znicz Pruszków

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lechia Gdansk

2/25/2024

I Liga · Round 21Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Znicz Pruszków37%

×Draw25%

Lechia Gdansk38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz PruszkówExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.48

Znicz Pruszków

1.45

Lechia Gdansk

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.37

creates per match

1.35

1.61

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.37

Lechia Gdansk

1.35

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.61

Lechia Gdansk

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw

62%

Znicz Pruszków or Lechia Gdansk

75%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

63%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

17%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

77%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

42%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

18%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

77%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

43%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

49%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.37 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.35 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more

37%

level

25%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

38%

Lechia Gdansk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff