Lechia Gdansk 1–0 Znicz Pruszków: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Znicz Pruszków

8/13/2023

I Liga · Round 4Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lechia Gdansk62%

×Draw23%

Znicz Pruszków16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.79

Lechia Gdansk

1.81

Znicz Pruszków

0.79

Lechia Gdansk creates 129% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

2.18

creates per match

1.10

0.47

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

2.18

Znicz Pruszków

1.10

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

0.47

Znicz Pruszków

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

84%

Lechia Gdansk or Znicz Pruszków

77%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

38%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

36%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

84%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

54%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

27%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

55%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

19%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

79%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 2.18 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.81

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.10 + Lechia Gdansk defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

62%

level

23%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

16%

Lechia Gdansk at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff