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Znicz Pruszków vs Kalisz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
CANC
13:00
Kalisz
Kalisz
1/27/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Znicz Pruszków42%
×Draw25%
Kalisz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Pruszków
1.54
Kalisz
1.35

Znicz Pruszków creates 14% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.90
Kalisz
1.09

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków
1.60
Kalisz
1.18

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par
Kalisz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Kalisz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw
67%
Znicz Pruszków or Kalisz
75%
Draw or Kalisz
58%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
21%
Kalisz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
79%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
45%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
20%
Kalisz 1+ goals
74%
Kalisz 2+ goals
39%
Kalisz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
56%
Kalisz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Kalisz away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.90 + Kalisz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kalisz attack 1.09 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more
42%
level
25%
Kalisz scores more
33%

Znicz Pruszków at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Znicz Pruszków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Znicz Pruszków vs Kalisz — Match Preview

Znicz Pruszków face Kalisz on January 27, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Znicz Pruszków host Kalisz at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.