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Kalisz vs Znicz Pruszków — II Liga - East 2019

Kalisz
Kalisz
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Znicz Pruszków
Znicz Pruszków
3/19/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 24Stadion OSRiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kalisz41%
×Draw25%
Znicz Pruszków34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalisz
1.46
Znicz Pruszków
1.31

Kalisz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 69 away

creates per match

Kalisz
1.48
Znicz Pruszków
1.36

allows per match

Kalisz
1.27
Znicz Pruszków
1.45

finishing

Kalisz+0.00on par
Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalisz ↓

Znicz Pruszków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kalisz or draw
66%
Kalisz or Znicz Pruszków
75%
Draw or Znicz Pruszków
59%

Winning margin

Kalisz wins by 2+
20%
Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kalisz 1+ goals
77%
Kalisz 2+ goals
43%
Kalisz 3+ goals
18%
Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals
73%
Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals
38%
Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kalisz (draw refunded)
55%
Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalisz at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalisz attack 1.48 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.36 + Kalisz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kalisz scores more
41%
level
25%
Znicz Pruszków scores more
34%

Kalisz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kalisz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalisz vs Znicz Pruszków

Znicz Pruszków beat Kalisz 5-0 in II Liga - East on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion OSRiR in Kalisz.