Znicz Pruszków 0–2 Bytovia Bytów: Result & Stats

Znicz Pruszków

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bytovia Bytów

6/3/2020

II Liga - East · Round 23Stadion Znicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Znicz Pruszków43%

×Draw25%

Bytovia Bytów31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znicz PruszkówExpected goals in this matchBytovia Bytów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.23

Znicz Pruszków

1.50

Bytovia Bytów

1.23

Znicz Pruszków creates 22% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

1.14

creates per match

1.17

1.29

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.14

Bytovia Bytów

1.17

allows per match

Znicz Pruszków

1.29

Bytovia Bytów

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Pruszków ↓

Bytovia Bytów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Znicz Pruszków or draw

69%

Znicz Pruszków or Bytovia Bytów

75%

Draw or Bytovia Bytów

57%

Winning margin

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

21%

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

78%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

44%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

19%

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

71%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

35%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

58%

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Pruszków at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 69 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.14 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Znicz Pruszków scores more

43%

level

25%

Bytovia Bytów scores more

31%

Znicz Pruszków at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Znicz Pruszków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff