Bytovia Bytów 2–2 Znicz Pruszków: Result & Stats

Bytovia Bytów

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Znicz Pruszków

3/13/2021

II Liga - East · Round 21Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bytovia Bytów41%

×Draw25%

Znicz Pruszków34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bytovia BytówExpected goals in this matchZnicz Pruszków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.37

Bytovia Bytów

1.51

Znicz Pruszków

1.37

Bytovia Bytów creates 10% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 69 away

1.57

creates per match

1.36

1.37

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.57

Znicz Pruszków

1.36

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.37

Znicz Pruszków

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Znicz Pruszków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Znicz Pruszków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw

66%

Bytovia Bytów or Znicz Pruszków

75%

Draw or Znicz Pruszków

59%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

20%

Znicz Pruszków wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

78%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

44%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

19%

Znicz Pruszków 1+ goals

75%

Znicz Pruszków 2+ goals

40%

Znicz Pruszków 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

54%

Znicz Pruszków (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Znicz Pruszków away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + Znicz Pruszków defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.51

Znicz Pruszków attack 1.36 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more

41%

level

25%

Znicz Pruszków scores more

34%

Bytovia Bytów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff