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Znicz Biała Piska vs Wissa Szczuczyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Znicz Biała Piska
Znicz Biała Piska
FT
0 – 0
Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
9/12/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion Miejski przy Zespole Szkół nr 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Znicz Biała Piska50%
×Draw24%
Wissa Szczuczyn27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Biała Piska
1.75
Wissa Szczuczyn
1.22

Znicz Biała Piska creates 43% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Znicz Biała Piska
1.27
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.56

allows per match

Znicz Biała Piska
1.88
Wissa Szczuczyn
2.22

finishing

Znicz Biała Piska+0.00on par
Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Biała Piska ↓

Wissa Szczuczyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Znicz Biała Piska or draw
73%
Znicz Biała Piska or Wissa Szczuczyn
76%
Draw or Wissa Szczuczyn
50%

Winning margin

Znicz Biała Piska wins by 2+
27%
Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Znicz Biała Piska 1+ goals
83%
Znicz Biała Piska 2+ goals
52%
Znicz Biała Piska 3+ goals
25%
Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
70%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
34%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Znicz Biała Piska (draw refunded)
65%
Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Biała Piska at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

Wissa Szczuczyn away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Biała Piska attack 1.27 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.75

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 0.56 + Znicz Biała Piska defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Znicz Biała Piska scores more
50%
level
24%
Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
27%

Znicz Biała Piska at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Znicz Biała Piska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Znicz Biała Piska 0–0 Wissa Szczuczyn

Znicz Biała Piska and Wissa Szczuczyn drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski przy Zespole Szkół nr 1 in Biała Piska.