Wissa Szczuczyn 2–4 Znicz Biała Piska

Wissa Szczuczyn

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Znicz Biała Piska

4/23/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wissa Szczuczyn41%

×Draw23%

Znicz Biała Piska36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wissa SzczuczynExpected goals in this matchZnicz Biała Piska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.65

Wissa Szczuczyn

1.77

Znicz Biała Piska

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 53 away

1.00

creates per match

1.47

1.83

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Wissa Szczuczyn

1.00

Znicz Biała Piska

1.47

allows per match

Wissa Szczuczyn

1.83

Znicz Biała Piska

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Znicz Biała Piska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wissa Szczuczyn ↓

Znicz Biała Piska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Wissa Szczuczyn or draw

64%

Wissa Szczuczyn or Znicz Biała Piska

77%

Draw or Znicz Biała Piska

59%

Winning margin

Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+

22%

Znicz Biała Piska wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals

83%

Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals

53%

Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals

26%

Znicz Biała Piska 1+ goals

81%

Znicz Biała Piska 2+ goals

49%

Znicz Biała Piska 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)

53%

Znicz Biała Piska (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wissa Szczuczyn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

Znicz Biała Piska away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 1.00 + Znicz Biała Piska defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Znicz Biała Piska attack 1.47 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wissa Szczuczyn scores more

41%

level

23%

Znicz Biała Piska scores more

36%

Wissa Szczuczyn at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wissa Szczuczyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff