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Znicz Biała Piska vs Ursus Warszawa — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Znicz Biała Piska
Znicz Biała Piska
FT
3 – 1
Ursus Warszawa
Ursus Warszawa
10/10/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion Miejski przy Zespole Szkół nr 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Znicz Biała Piska34%
×Draw24%
Ursus Warszawa42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znicz Biała Piska
1.46
Ursus Warszawa
1.63

Ursus Warszawa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

creates per match

Znicz Biała Piska
1.27
Ursus Warszawa
1.38

allows per match

Znicz Biała Piska
1.88
Ursus Warszawa
1.66

finishing

Znicz Biała Piska+0.00on par
Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znicz Biała Piska ↓

Ursus Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Znicz Biała Piska or draw
58%
Znicz Biała Piska or Ursus Warszawa
76%
Draw or Ursus Warszawa
66%

Winning margin

Znicz Biała Piska wins by 2+
16%
Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Znicz Biała Piska 1+ goals
77%
Znicz Biała Piska 2+ goals
43%
Znicz Biała Piska 3+ goals
18%
Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals
80%
Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals
48%
Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Znicz Biała Piska (draw refunded)
45%
Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znicz Biała Piska at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znicz Biała Piska attack 1.27 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Znicz Biała Piska defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Znicz Biała Piska scores more
34%
level
24%
Ursus Warszawa scores more
42%

Ursus Warszawa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ursus Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Znicz Biała Piska 3–1 Ursus Warszawa

Znicz Biała Piska beat Ursus Warszawa 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski przy Zespole Szkół nr 1 in Biała Piska.