Ursus Warszawa 3–1 Znicz Biała Piska

Ursus Warszawa

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Znicz Biała Piska

5/21/2022

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ursus Warszawa47%

×Draw22%

Znicz Biała Piska32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ursus WarszawaExpected goals in this matchZnicz Biała Piska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.64

Ursus Warszawa

2.01

Znicz Biała Piska

1.64

Ursus Warszawa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 53 away

1.47

creates per match

1.47

1.80

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Ursus Warszawa

1.47

Znicz Biała Piska

1.47

allows per match

Ursus Warszawa

1.80

Znicz Biała Piska

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Znicz Biała Piska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ursus Warszawa ↓

Znicz Biała Piska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Ursus Warszawa or draw

68%

Ursus Warszawa or Znicz Biała Piska

78%

Draw or Znicz Biała Piska

53%

Winning margin

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+

26%

Znicz Biała Piska wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals

87%

Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals

59%

Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals

32%

Znicz Biała Piska 1+ goals

81%

Znicz Biała Piska 2+ goals

49%

Znicz Biała Piska 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)

59%

Znicz Biała Piska (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ursus Warszawa at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Znicz Biała Piska away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.47 + Znicz Biała Piska defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.01

Znicz Biała Piska attack 1.47 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ursus Warszawa scores more

47%

level

22%

Znicz Biała Piska scores more

32%

Ursus Warszawa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ursus Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff