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Znamya Truda vs Zenit Penza — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zenit Penza
Zenit Penza
10/11/2025Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Znamya Truda58%
×Draw23%
Zenit Penza19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.83
Zenit Penza
0.95

Znamya Truda creates 93% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 76 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
2.00
Zenit Penza
0.96

allows per match

Znamya Truda
0.93
Zenit Penza
1.66

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Zenit Penza+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Zenit Penza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
81%
Znamya Truda or Zenit Penza
77%
Draw or Zenit Penza
42%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
33%
Zenit Penza wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
84%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
54%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
28%
Zenit Penza 1+ goals
61%
Zenit Penza 2+ goals
25%
Zenit Penza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
75%
Zenit Penza (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Zenit Penza away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.66 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 2.00 + Zenit Penza defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.83

Zenit Penza attack 0.96 + Znamya Truda defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
58%
level
23%
Zenit Penza scores more
19%

Znamya Truda at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Znamya Truda 3–1 Zenit Penza

Znamya Truda beat Zenit Penza 3-1 in Second League - Group 3 on October 11, 2025.