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Zenit Penza vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 3 2020

Zenit Penza
Zenit Penza
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
6/21/2025Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zenit Penza26%
×Draw24%
Znamya Truda51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Penza
1.17
Znamya Truda
1.75

Znamya Truda creates 50% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zenit Penza
1.27
Znamya Truda
2.07

allows per match

Zenit Penza
1.43
Znamya Truda
1.07

finishing

Zenit Penza+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Penza ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zenit Penza or draw
49%
Zenit Penza or Znamya Truda
76%
Draw or Znamya Truda
74%

Winning margin

Zenit Penza wins by 2+
10%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Zenit Penza 1+ goals
69%
Zenit Penza 2+ goals
33%
Zenit Penza 3+ goals
11%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
83%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
52%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Zenit Penza (draw refunded)
33%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Penza at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 77 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Penza attack 1.27 + Znamya Truda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Znamya Truda attack 2.07 + Zenit Penza defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zenit Penza scores more
26%
level
24%
Znamya Truda scores more
51%

Znamya Truda at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Zenit Penza 0–2 Znamya Truda

Znamya Truda beat Zenit Penza 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on June 21, 2025.