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Znamya Truda vs Zenit Irkutsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
CANC
12:00
Zenit Irkutsk
Zenit Irkutsk
5/20/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Znamya Truda47%
×Draw27%
Zenit Irkutsk26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.44
Zenit Irkutsk
0.99

Znamya Truda creates 45% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 6 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.05
Zenit Irkutsk
0.50

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.48
Zenit Irkutsk
1.83

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Zenit Irkutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
74%
Znamya Truda or Zenit Irkutsk
73%
Draw or Zenit Irkutsk
53%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
23%
Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
76%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
42%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
18%
Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals
63%
Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals
26%
Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
65%
Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Zenit Irkutsk away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.44

Zenit Irkutsk attack 0.50 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
47%
level
27%
Zenit Irkutsk scores more
26%

Znamya Truda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Znamya Truda host Zenit Irkutsk

May 20, 2021: Znamya Truda take on Zenit Irkutsk in Second League - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.