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Zenit Irkutsk vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zenit Irkutsk
Zenit Irkutsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
8/26/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zenit Irkutsk53%
×Draw25%
Znamya Truda22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Irkutsk
1.65
Znamya Truda
0.97

Zenit Irkutsk creates 70% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 68 away

creates per match

Zenit Irkutsk
1.71
Znamya Truda
1.07

allows per match

Zenit Irkutsk
0.86
Znamya Truda
1.59

finishing

Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Irkutsk ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zenit Irkutsk or draw
78%
Zenit Irkutsk or Znamya Truda
75%
Draw or Znamya Truda
47%

Winning margin

Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+
29%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals
81%
Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals
49%
Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals
23%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
62%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
25%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)
71%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Irkutsk at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Irkutsk attack 1.71 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zenit Irkutsk scores more
53%
level
25%
Znamya Truda scores more
22%

Zenit Irkutsk at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zenit Irkutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Zenit Irkutsk 1–1 Znamya Truda

Zenit Irkutsk and Znamya Truda drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on August 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Irkutsk.