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Znamya Truda vs Yenisey II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yenisey II
Yenisey II
7/28/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Znamya Truda48%
×Draw24%
Yenisey II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.67
Yenisey II
1.20

Znamya Truda creates 39% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 76 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.05
Yenisey II
0.92

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.48
Yenisey II
2.30

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Yenisey II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Yenisey II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
73%
Znamya Truda or Yenisey II
76%
Draw or Yenisey II
52%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
26%
Yenisey II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
81%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
50%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
23%
Yenisey II 1+ goals
70%
Yenisey II 2+ goals
34%
Yenisey II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
64%
Yenisey II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Yenisey II away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Yenisey II defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.67

Yenisey II attack 0.92 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
48%
level
24%
Yenisey II scores more
27%

Znamya Truda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs Yenisey II

Znamya Truda beat Yenisey II 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.