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Yenisey II vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Yenisey II
Yenisey II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
10/22/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Yenisey II41%
×Draw25%
Znamya Truda34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yenisey II
1.50
Znamya Truda
1.35

Yenisey II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 68 away

creates per match

Yenisey II
1.40
Znamya Truda
1.07

allows per match

Yenisey II
1.64
Znamya Truda
1.59

finishing

Yenisey II+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey II ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Yenisey II or draw
66%
Yenisey II or Znamya Truda
75%
Draw or Znamya Truda
59%

Winning margin

Yenisey II wins by 2+
20%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Yenisey II 1+ goals
78%
Yenisey II 2+ goals
44%
Yenisey II 3+ goals
19%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
74%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
39%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Yenisey II (draw refunded)
54%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.64 · 77 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey II attack 1.40 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Yenisey II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yenisey II scores more
41%
level
25%
Znamya Truda scores more
34%

Yenisey II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yenisey II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yenisey II vs Znamya Truda

Yenisey II and Znamya Truda drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 2 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Futbol-arena Enisey in Krasnoyarsk.