Znamya Truda 2–1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya

Znamya Truda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

10/10/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Znamya Truda31%

×Draw25%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znamya TrudaExpected goals in this matchVolna Nizhegorodskaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.52

Znamya Truda

1.25

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

1.52

Volna Nizhegorodskaya creates 22% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

1.05

creates per match

1.56

1.48

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Znamya Truda

1.05

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

1.56

allows per match

Znamya Truda

1.48

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Volna Nizhegorodskaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Volna Nizhegorodskaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw

56%

Znamya Truda or Volna Nizhegorodskaya

75%

Draw or Volna Nizhegorodskaya

69%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+

13%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals

71%

Znamya Truda 2+ goals

36%

Znamya Truda 3+ goals

13%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1+ goals

78%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2+ goals

45%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)

42%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Volna Nizhegorodskaya away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack 1.56 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Znamya Truda scores more

31%

level

25%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya scores more

44%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Volna Nizhegorodskaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff