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Volna Nizhegorodskaya vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
8/15/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Volna Nizhegorodskaya30%
×Draw23%
Znamya Truda47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.42
Znamya Truda
1.81

Znamya Truda creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

creates per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.25
Znamya Truda
1.07

allows per match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya
2.56
Znamya Truda
1.59

finishing

Volna Nizhegorodskaya+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volna Nizhegorodskaya ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Volna Nizhegorodskaya or draw
53%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya or Znamya Truda
77%
Draw or Znamya Truda
70%

Winning margin

Volna Nizhegorodskaya wins by 2+
14%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1+ goals
76%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 2+ goals
41%
Volna Nizhegorodskaya 3+ goals
17%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
84%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
54%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Volna Nizhegorodskaya (draw refunded)
39%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.56 · 16 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volna Nizhegorodskaya attack 1.25 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Volna Nizhegorodskaya defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Volna Nizhegorodskaya scores more
30%
level
23%
Znamya Truda scores more
47%

Znamya Truda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1–0 Znamya Truda

Volna Nizhegorodskaya beat Znamya Truda 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Nizhniy Novgorod.