Znamya Truda 0–2 Spartak Moscow 2: Result & Stats

Znamya Truda

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Spartak Moscow 2

9/15/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Znamya Truda34%

×Draw25%

Spartak Moscow 241%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znamya TrudaExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow 2

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.52

Znamya Truda

1.35

Spartak Moscow 2

1.52

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 35 away

1.05

creates per match

1.57

1.48

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Znamya Truda

1.05

Spartak Moscow 2

1.57

allows per match

Znamya Truda

1.48

Spartak Moscow 2

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Spartak Moscow 2 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw

59%

Znamya Truda or Spartak Moscow 2

75%

Draw or Spartak Moscow 2

66%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+

15%

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals

74%

Znamya Truda 2+ goals

39%

Znamya Truda 3+ goals

15%

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals

78%

Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals

45%

Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)

45%

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Spartak Moscow 2 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.57 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Znamya Truda scores more

34%

level

25%

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more

41%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff