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Spartak Moscow 2 vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Spartak Moscow 2
Spartak Moscow 2
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
6/1/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Spartak Moscow 255%
×Draw24%
Znamya Truda21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow 2
1.69
Znamya Truda
0.93

Spartak Moscow 2 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 68 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow 2
1.79
Znamya Truda
1.07

allows per match

Spartak Moscow 2
0.79
Znamya Truda
1.59

finishing

Spartak Moscow 2+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow 2 ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow 2 or draw
79%
Spartak Moscow 2 or Znamya Truda
76%
Draw or Znamya Truda
45%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow 2 wins by 2+
30%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 2 1+ goals
82%
Spartak Moscow 2 2+ goals
50%
Spartak Moscow 2 3+ goals
24%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
61%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
24%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow 2 (draw refunded)
73%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow 2 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 38 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow 2 attack 1.79 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Spartak Moscow 2 defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Spartak Moscow 2 scores more
55%
level
24%
Znamya Truda scores more
21%

Spartak Moscow 2 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Spartak Moscow 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Moscow 2 vs Znamya Truda

Spartak Moscow 2 beat Znamya Truda 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Futbol'noe pole 4 Akademiya Spartak im. F. Cherenkova in Moskva.