Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Znamya Truda vs Ryazan — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ryazan
Ryazan
5/10/2025Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7SportComplex Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Znamya Truda48%
×Draw25%
Ryazan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.54
Ryazan
1.09

Znamya Truda creates 41% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 93 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
2.00
Ryazan
1.26

allows per match

Znamya Truda
0.93
Ryazan
1.08

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Ryazan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Ryazan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
73%
Znamya Truda or Ryazan
75%
Draw or Ryazan
52%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
24%
Ryazan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
79%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
45%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
20%
Ryazan 1+ goals
66%
Ryazan 2+ goals
30%
Ryazan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
64%
Ryazan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Ryazan away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 2.00 + Ryazan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ryazan attack 1.26 + Znamya Truda defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
48%
level
25%
Ryazan scores more
27%

Znamya Truda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Znamya Truda 0–1 Ryazan

Ryazan beat Znamya Truda 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at SportComplex Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.