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Ryazan vs Znamya Truda — Cup 2019

Ryazan
Ryazan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
7/28/2019CupCup · 2nd RoundCentral'nyj Sportivn'yj Kompleks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ryazan55%
×Draw21%
Znamya Truda24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ryazan
2.04
Znamya Truda
1.27

Ryazan creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ryazan
2.50
Znamya Truda
0.71

allows per match

Ryazan
1.83
Znamya Truda
1.57

finishing

Ryazan+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ryazan ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ryazan or draw
76%
Ryazan or Znamya Truda
79%
Draw or Znamya Truda
45%

Winning margin

Ryazan wins by 2+
33%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ryazan 1+ goals
87%
Ryazan 2+ goals
60%
Ryazan 3+ goals
33%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
72%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
36%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ryazan (draw refunded)
70%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ryazan at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ryazan attack 2.50 + Znamya Truda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Znamya Truda attack 0.71 + Ryazan defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ryazan scores more
55%
level
21%
Znamya Truda scores more
24%

Ryazan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ryazan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Ryazan 3–0 Znamya Truda

Ryazan beat Znamya Truda 3-0 in Cup on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at Central'nyj Sportivn'yj Kompleks in Ryazan'.