Znamya Truda 0–1 Irkutsk: Result & Stats

Znamya Truda

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Irkutsk

10/29/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Znamya Truda34%

×Draw27%

Irkutsk39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znamya TrudaExpected goals in this matchIrkutsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.29

Znamya Truda

1.19

Irkutsk

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 44 away

1.05

creates per match

1.11

1.48

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Znamya Truda

1.05

Irkutsk

1.11

allows per match

Znamya Truda

1.48

Irkutsk

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Irkutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Irkutsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw

61%

Znamya Truda or Irkutsk

73%

Draw or Irkutsk

66%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+

14%

Irkutsk wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals

70%

Znamya Truda 2+ goals

33%

Znamya Truda 3+ goals

12%

Irkutsk 1+ goals

72%

Irkutsk 2+ goals

37%

Irkutsk 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)

47%

Irkutsk (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Irkutsk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Irkutsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Irkutsk attack 1.11 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Znamya Truda scores more

34%

level

27%

Irkutsk scores more

39%

Irkutsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Irkutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff