Irkutsk 1–0 Znamya Truda: Result & Stats

Irkutsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Znamya Truda

9/22/2024

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Irkutsk51%

×Draw25%

Znamya Truda24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IrkutskExpected goals in this matchZnamya Truda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.01

Irkutsk

1.58

Znamya Truda

1.01

Irkutsk creates 56% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 68 away

1.57

creates per match

1.07

0.95

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Irkutsk

1.57

Znamya Truda

1.07

allows per match

Irkutsk

0.95

Znamya Truda

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irkutsk+0.00on par

Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irkutsk ↓

Znamya Truda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Irkutsk or draw

76%

Irkutsk or Znamya Truda

75%

Draw or Znamya Truda

49%

Winning margin

Irkutsk wins by 2+

26%

Znamya Truda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Irkutsk 1+ goals

79%

Irkutsk 2+ goals

47%

Irkutsk 3+ goals

21%

Znamya Truda 1+ goals

64%

Znamya Truda 2+ goals

27%

Znamya Truda 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Irkutsk (draw refunded)

68%

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irkutsk at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irkutsk attack 1.57 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Irkutsk defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Irkutsk scores more

51%

level

25%

Znamya Truda scores more

24%

Irkutsk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Irkutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff