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Znamya Truda vs Dinamo St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg
10/27/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Znamya Truda32%
×Draw25%
Dinamo St. Petersburg42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.25
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.48

Dinamo St. Petersburg creates 18% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 61 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.05
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.49

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.48
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.44

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Dinamo St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
58%
Znamya Truda or Dinamo St. Petersburg
75%
Draw or Dinamo St. Petersburg
68%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
14%
Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
71%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
36%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
13%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
43%
Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.49 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
32%
level
25%
Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more
42%

Dinamo St. Petersburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs Dinamo St. Petersburg

Dinamo St. Petersburg beat Znamya Truda 3-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.