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Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
8/19/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg47%
×Draw26%
Znamya Truda27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.48
Znamya Truda
1.07

Dinamo St. Petersburg creates 38% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 68 away

creates per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.36
Znamya Truda
1.07

allows per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.07
Znamya Truda
1.59

finishing

Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo St. Petersburg ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo St. Petersburg or draw
73%
Dinamo St. Petersburg or Znamya Truda
74%
Draw or Znamya Truda
53%

Winning margin

Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+
23%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals
19%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
66%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
29%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
63%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.36 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more
47%
level
26%
Znamya Truda scores more
27%

Dinamo St. Petersburg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Dinamo St. Petersburg 1–0 Znamya Truda

Dinamo St. Petersburg beat Znamya Truda 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Nova Arena in St. Petersburg.