Znamya Noginsk 0–1 Saturn Ramenskoye

Znamya Noginsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Saturn Ramenskoye

9/14/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Znamya Noginsk43%

×Draw25%

Saturn Ramenskoye32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znamya NoginskExpected goals in this matchSaturn Ramenskoye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.34

Znamya Noginsk

1.58

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.34

Znamya Noginsk creates 18% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 60 away

1.59

creates per match

1.32

1.36

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk

1.59

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.32

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk

1.36

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Saturn Ramenskoye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw

68%

Znamya Noginsk or Saturn Ramenskoye

75%

Draw or Saturn Ramenskoye

57%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+

22%

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals

79%

Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals

47%

Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals

21%

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals

74%

Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals

39%

Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)

57%

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Saturn Ramenskoye away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.59 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.32 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more

43%

level

25%

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more

32%

Znamya Noginsk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff