Saturn Ramenskoye 1–1 Znamya Noginsk

Saturn Ramenskoye

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Znamya Noginsk

9/7/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Leon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Saturn Ramenskoye54%

×Draw23%

Znamya Noginsk24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saturn RamenskoyeExpected goals in this matchZnamya Noginsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.17

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.88

Znamya Noginsk

1.17

Saturn Ramenskoye creates 61% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 55 away

1.98

creates per match

1.13

1.21

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.98

Znamya Noginsk

1.13

allows per match

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.21

Znamya Noginsk

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saturn Ramenskoye ↓

Znamya Noginsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Saturn Ramenskoye or draw

76%

Saturn Ramenskoye or Znamya Noginsk

77%

Draw or Znamya Noginsk

46%

Winning margin

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+

31%

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals

85%

Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals

56%

Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals

29%

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals

69%

Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals

33%

Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)

70%

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saturn Ramenskoye at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.98 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.88

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more

54%

level

23%

Znamya Noginsk scores more

24%

Saturn Ramenskoye at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Saturn Ramenskoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff