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Znamya Noginsk vs Salyut-Belgorod — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Salyut-Belgorod
Salyut-Belgorod
11/8/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Znamya Noginsk32%
×Draw25%
Salyut-Belgorod43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.29
Salyut-Belgorod
1.54

Salyut-Belgorod creates 19% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 85 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.59
Salyut-Belgorod
1.71

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.36
Salyut-Belgorod
1.00

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Salyut-Belgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
57%
Znamya Noginsk or Salyut-Belgorod
75%
Draw or Salyut-Belgorod
68%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
14%
Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
72%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
37%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
14%
Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals
79%
Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals
45%
Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
43%
Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Salyut-Belgorod away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.59 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Salyut-Belgorod attack 1.71 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
32%
level
25%
Salyut-Belgorod scores more
43%

Salyut-Belgorod at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Salyut-Belgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Znamya Noginsk 0–1 Salyut-Belgorod

Salyut-Belgorod beat Znamya Noginsk 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.